Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.774482 0.902994 1.045840 1.216351 1.414335 1.636980 1.906400
2025-01-12 0.540471 0.703721 0.905596 1.173442 1.519478 1.951548 2.532383
2025-01-19 0.416591 0.586561 0.813210 1.137256 1.588623 2.195275 3.073388
2025-01-26 0.352476 0.528889 0.778990 1.158925 1.721424 2.523840 3.756874
2025-02-02 0.320089 0.507395 0.787334 1.235407 1.934518 2.984168 4.682069
2025-02-09 0.285623 0.475618 0.773334 1.272701 2.089295 3.372696 5.546123
2025-02-16 0.253642 0.441841 0.749788 1.288899 2.209103 3.716943 6.379486
2025-02-23 0.224481 0.407744 0.719886 1.288445 2.298197 4.017828 7.173997
2025-03-02 0.198355 0.374713 0.686607 1.276230 2.363040 4.281909 7.933391
2025-03-09 0.178120 0.349175 0.662606 1.276251 2.447599 4.587108 8.799173
2025-03-16 0.154951 0.314713 0.617549 1.230646 2.440724 4.723757 9.366553
2025-03-23 0.149676 0.314238 0.636217 1.308780 2.678288 5.341367 10.923282
2025-03-30 0.131542 0.285782 0.597597 1.270303 2.684878 5.522569 11.658661
2025-04-06 0.115275 0.259004 0.559051 1.227205 2.677232 5.676133 12.361723
2025-04-13 0.101716 0.236064 0.525334 1.189437 2.675072 5.839030 13.102448
2025-04-20 0.094794 0.226891 0.519810 1.212092 2.806090 6.296718 14.536360
2025-04-27 0.092798 0.228747 0.538778 1.292045 3.074759 7.083493 16.800131
2025-05-04 0.087955 0.223145 0.540022 1.331031 3.254012 7.691578 18.729560
2025-05-11 0.082122 0.214284 0.532468 1.347964 3.383026 8.199143 20.484299
2025-05-18 0.075844 0.203401 0.518607 1.347489 3.469300 8.615372 22.067663
2025-05-25 0.069529 0.191530 0.500792 1.334721 3.523220 8.959653 23.514840
2025-06-01 0.064490 0.182340 0.488576 1.334742 3.609664 9.393653 25.242869
2025-06-08 0.057712 0.167454 0.459718 1.287068 3.565325 9.492730 26.112578